Globally, many employers plan to sustain a stable hiring outlook going into 2026, according to a Dec. 9 report from ManpowerGroup.
While 40% intend to increase headcount during the first quarter, 40% will maintain current staffing levels and 16% expect to reduce their workforce.
Among those planning reductions, 29% pointed to economic challenges, 24% said market changes have reduced demand for some roles, and 22% reported reducing staff to meet current needs. In contrast, only 20% cited automation and artificial intelligence tools.
“What we’re seeing is employers responding to the economic signals with a measured and deliberate approach,” Jonas Prising, CEO and chair of ManpowerGroup, said in a statement.
“AI will be a powerful driver of productivity in the coming years, but today the economic climate is shaping hiring decisions,” Prising added. “Employers are prioritizing specific roles and capabilities needed to meet current demands.”
In a survey of more than 39,000 employers, ManpowerGroup’s Net Employment Outlook for the first quarter of 2026 increased slightly to 24%, down 4% year-over-year but up 4% from the previous quarter.
By size, large employers with more than 5,000 employees reported the weakest outlook at 21%, down 25% year over year and 9% quarter over quarter. Companies with 250-999 employees had the most confident hiring intentions, with an outlook of 28%.
By industry, employers in the public sector, health and social services, utilities and natural resources, and trade and logistics reported the most cautious hiring plans. On the other hand, those in finance and insurance, information, and construction and real estate had the most optimistic hiring plans.
Among employers who expect to expand headcount at the beginning of 2026, 37% pointed to organizational growth, 26% cited investment in new business areas and 19% said they’re backfilling recent departures. This could indicate that employers are more focused on evolving their roles to fit existing needs rather than simply refilling positions, the report found.
Overall, companies may be entering a more cautious phase amid economic uncertainty, according to two reports from Challenger, Gray & Christmas. CEO exits have dropped, while job cuts have risen compared to 2024, signaling that companies have “likely lowered their tolerance for change,” a workplace and labor expert for the firm said.
Employers have also stalled on hiring as candidate interest has slowed in recent months, according to an iCIMS report. Those that move top talent through the hiring process more quickly will “own the market,” the head of talent acquisition insights at iCIMS said.
