A combination of decreased immigration and fertility rates as well as retiring workers may soon prompt steep U.S. labor force losses — with some steep drops as early as 2032, according to an analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data published May 14 by Indeed Hiring Lab.
Artificial intelligence tools can shore up some projected worker shortages, but only in white-collar sectors where shortages will be less of an issue, Hiring Lab noted. That means, without proper intervention, there may soon be a glut of workers unprepared for the jobs that are actually open.
These structural forces are each alone a “major change” in the job market, wrote Felix Aidala and Laura Ullrich, an economist and the director of economic research in North America for Indeed Hiring Lab, respectively.
“Taken together, they are expected to drive a growing mismatch between the jobs workers will have (and want), and the jobs the economy will need. Over the next 15 years, that mismatch will build quietly but significantly,” they wrote.
For example, the sectors that are projected to face the most significant labor shortages, such as construction and healthcare, “are precisely the ones where AI offers the least relief.” Meanwhile, new college graduates will largely hew to their areas of study, often well-paying white-collar fields such as finance, information and business services — sectors heavily at risk of job loss in certain AI scenarios, Hiring Lab posits.
AI integration with jobs can largely follow three distinct channels, Hiring Lab said:
- AI simply makes workers more productive in their same roles.
- AI replaces specific tasks, which destroys certain jobs.
- AI creates new tasks that humans have an advantage in performing, creating jobs.
In a scenario where AI replaces tasks, unemployment rates in those white-collar jobs could skyrocket by 2032, per the report — as high as 21.2% for the information sector, 11.8% in financial activities and 10.7% in business services.
In these emerging scenarios, an employer’s role will largely be in managing friction in the market and using data to inform and move workers where they are needed most, Hiring Lab said. Some of that work involves paying attention to how jobs are posted and described, as well as how people are sought for them — such as turning toward skills-first hiring protocols, other studies have shown.
“The next 15 years will test whether institutions, employers, and workers can adapt quickly enough to a labor market that does not need more people in aggregate, but rather needs different people in different places,” Hiring Lab’s report said.
Other employer roles include retraining workers, reforming credentialing systems and better job matching, per the report — all of which can help prevent an unemployment cliff
