Dive Brief:
- Turnover expectations have climbed sharply in recent years, with 50% of U.S. companies bracing for turnovers in 2026, compared to 39% in fall 2024 and 33% in fall 2023, according to a new Express Employment Professionals-Harris Poll survey.
- At the same time, the average cost of turnover has risen to $45,236, up from $36,723 last year, per the report. It’s a sign of mounting pressures on companies that are already navigating a competitive labor landscape, the report said.
- For employers that anticipate higher turnover in 2026, 32% attribute potential turnover to better pay and benefits offered elsewhere, while 37% point to increased workplace demands leading to more vacancies.
Dive Insight:
“These findings reinforce something leaders have known intuitively for years — strong company culture isn't just good for people,” Bob Funk Jr., CEO, president and chairman of Express Employment International, said in the release. “It's good for business. When employees feel supported and connected to a healthy work environment, turnover naturally declines. In a year when the cost of replacing a single employee continues to climb, culture has become one of the most financially sound investments any organization can make.”
Amid these concerns about turnover, 75% of hiring managers said they expect their company’s average wage to rise in 2026, with 18% saying they expect wages to remain flat. On the other hand, 46% of job seekers said they expect wages to increase, and 40% said they expect wages to remain the same.
The survey also cited Payscale's 10th annual salary budget survey, which found that U.S. salary budget increases are expected to remain relatively stable at 3.5% in 2026, down just 0.1% from 2025.
However, workers’ expectations regarding compensation may not be aligned with organizational budgeting. Payscale’s 2025 Pay Confidence Gap Report found that nearly 1 in 5 workers used generative AI to research salaries, and 27% said it inflated their compensation expectations.
Meanwhile, 73% of workers cited increased salary as their top priority for the coming year, according to Monster’s 2026 WorkWatch Report.
