Although job openings have increased 9% and applications have risen 19% since September 2024, hires have remained flat year over year, which could indicate employer caution ahead of the holiday hiring season, according to an Oct. 15 report from iCIMS, a talent acquisition software company.
To attract top talent during the 2025 holiday season, employers will need to prioritize faster conversion rather than more sourcing, the report found.
“Applicant volume is up, but so is time to fill. Retail teams are drowning in choices, not shortages,” Trent Cotton, head of talent acquisition insights at iCIMS, said in a statement. “It is time for employers to review their hiring processes and eliminate obstacles as they gear up for their busiest season.”
Seasonal hiring in retail could hit the lowest point since 2009, on the heels of the 2008 financial crisis, according to a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Retailers could hire for fewer than 500,000 positions during the last three months of the year, building on a down year in 2024.
Based on iCIMS data, the retail hiring spree seen earlier in 2025 may have hit a snag. Retail job openings climbed 15% and hires rose 7% year over year in September, but while retail applications have grown 18% year over year, hiring has fallen for three consecutive months, dropping 9% since July.
Retail averaged 43 applications per opening in September, up from 35 in 2024 and higher than the overall labor market average of 34. Time to fill in retail also increased from 40 to 42 days.
Transportation has similarly continued to grow. Transportation job openings increased 19% and hires rose 7% year over year, with both reaching a 13-month high in September. Applications remain up 26% year over year, and hiring activity has eased slightly since July.
Transportation averaged 45 applications per opening in September, up from 36 in 2024. Time to fill has dropped from 42 to 38 days.
Seasonal hiring appears to be shifting older, with retail applicants between ages 18 and 24 making up a smaller share of the September applicant pool than a year ago, dropping from 43% to 37%. At the same time, the share of applicants between ages 35 and 44 rose from 12% to 16%. In transportation, those aged 18 aged 24 dropped from 46% to 37% year over year.
Across the labor market, employers say they’re staying the course instead of hiring right now, according to a ManpowerGroup survey. Notably, those who intend to hire are focused on hiring for specific capabilities, such as technological advancement, the firm found.
