Dive Brief:
- The retail trade industry is projected to experience the largest employment loss among all U.S. industries in a moderate impact or strong impact scenario, according to The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The scenarios, which refer to the degree of long-term economic changes due to the coronavirus pandemic, are detailed in a February labor review report. BLS examined the impact of pandemic on 2019–29 employment projections.
- Within the strong impact scenario, the retail trade industry is projected to lose "1.1 million jobs, a decline of 7.2%, erasing the job gains of the previous decade," the agency found, with the exception of nonstore retailers and food and beverage stores, which projected to see stronger employment. Several trends already set in place prior to the coronavirus pandemic, such as online shopping, have resulted in "deeper contractions in retail trade employment," according to the agency. In the moderate impact scenario, employment in retail trade industry is projected to "decline by 681,800 [jobs] from 2019 to 2029, a decline of 4.4%, almost doubling the drop seen in the baseline projections," according to BLS.
- An increase in telework is a primary driver of economic change in the moderate impact scenario, causing a decline in the need for office space and non-residential construction, according to BLS. Within this scenario, several industries are projected to see increased demand. For example, telework will drive demand for IT and computer-related jobs, "particularly those involved in IT security," the report found. As restaurant spending decreases, there will be more spending and employment at grocery stores. In a strong impact scenario, further declines in travel, accommodations and restaurant will be driven by consumer preference for avoiding interpersonal contact. As consumers avoid interpersonal contact, virtual services, such as telehealth, may increase, according to BLS. Declines in employment demand for industries that depend on large gatherings such as concerts and live sporting events may be driven by consumers' avoidance of large crowds. The changes projected for the moderate impact scenario remain within a strong impact scenario; however, consumer behaviors "are amplified," the report found.
Dive Insight:
Many retailers in North America temporarily closed stores and reduced hours to prevent the spread of COVID-19 at the onset of the pandemic, according to reports from Retail Dive.
The Retail Industry Leaders Association and the National Retail Federation released a Blueprint for Shopping Safe in April, which outlined a phased-in approach to reopening retail following the lifting of states' shelter-in-place orders. "Many traditional brick-and-mortar retailers have suffered from falling sales amid lockdown measures designed to reduce the spread of the virus, and several large department store chains have already announced nationwide store closures or declared bankruptcy," according to the BLS report. One such retailer, Macy's, announced Jan. 6 that it will permanently close 45 more stores in a plan to close 125 stores, Retail Dive reported.
Compared to the retail trade companies, hiring in the warehouse and food and beverage industries in 2020 — considered essential industries — experienced a boom amid the pandemic. For example, grocery manager openings on Glassdoor's site grew 648% between March 2 and May 11, according to an analysis published June 8. Along with grocery manager, order selector and warehouse manager roles experienced the highest percentage growth among all U.S. job openings on the site.
Among Glassdoor's list of the top 10 in-demand jobs, openings for IT specialists and public health advisors also made the list. This coincides with BLS' forecast that the demand for occupations in IT, food and beverage, and health and science occupations, such as epidemiologists, medical scientists, biochemists and biological technicians, will be on the rise.