Breaking down the monthly BLS job report
Below are the most recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports on “The Employment Situation” — the bureau’s term for the monthly jobs report.
Each report provides data on the month prior (September’s report covers August numbers, for example), and numbers are regularly adjusted in future reports.
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February 2024
3.9% unemployment rate275,000 jobs added
Total nonfarm payroll rose by 275,000 in February while the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The numbers showcase a labor market that is continuing to gradually cool, economists said.
While wage growth was strong — good news for workers, who have seen a long slew of real wage declines thanks to inflation, economists said — employment numbers from January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000 jobs, indicating the economy was not as hot as previously recorded.
“The report is consistent with data from the JOLTS report earlier this week showing that rates of hiring and quits are below pre-pandemic rates, and with anecdotal evidence from the Fed’s March 6 Beige Book pointing to a slacker labor market with improved labor availability and retention,” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s chief economist, said in a statement.
The tech sector, which has been especially clobbered by layoffs, also saw flat numbers in February, meaning the “techcession” may not be over, Pollak said.
Released March 8, 2024
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January 2024
3.7% unemployment rate353,000 jobs added
Total nonfarm payroll rose by 353,000 in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, starting 2024 in a strong position that far beat expectations, various economists said. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.
Modest revisions to previous months’ reports also indicated 2023 may have ended stronger than expected even amid January’s high-profile layoffs. Gains were broad across the board, touching a majority of industries.
However, some signals may bear watching, economists said.
“Employers usually cut back on hours before they slow hiring, and average weekly hours worked declined in January to the lowest level since March 2020, and are below the average level from the three years prior to the pandemic,” Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America for Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement.
Prime-age labor force participation also flattened, Sam Kuhn, economic data analyst at Appcast, noted.
January winter storms and three-day weekends may have played into the data, however, Chris Todd, CEO of UKG, said in a statement; “Being transparent, this makes it hard for everyone, regardless of methodology, to accurately gauge job creation.”
Released Feb. 2, 2024
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December 2023
3.7% unemployment rate216,000 jobs added
Total nonfarm payroll increased by 216,000 in December and unemployment remained at 3.7%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, showcasing an economy that is growing faster than many expected — a theme of the year overall.
“This time last year, most people were bracing for a recession,” Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement. “Today’s report is another one that should alleviate most short-term recession fears. If there’s any surprise emerging in this report, it’s that the labor market might have more momentum than previously thought.”
However, the report did little to ease fears of inflation’s resurgence, wrote Glassdoor’s Chief Economist Aaron Terrazas in a blog post. Wage growth has also kept pace, and likely will maintain that pace going into early 2024 as new minimum wage laws and union contracts take effect, Terrazas said.
“Today’s data will push against broader hopes for a definitive cooling in the economy that would buttress the case for lower interest rates in 2024,” Terrazas wrote.
Released Jan. 5, 2024
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November 2023
3.7% unemployment rate199,000 jobs added
Total nonfarm payroll increased by 199,000 in November and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Some of that job growth may have been due to workers returning from strikes, Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, said in a statement. While healthcare and government sectors added jobs, “job growth has effectively ground to a halt” in most other industries, Pollak said, likely due to high interest rates.
Retail even posted losses in jobs this month despite the holiday season, though retail openings for the winter have been down overall, other reports have shown.
Optimism remains high overall, however.
“Today’s jobs report signals optimism for the American worker,” UKG CEO Chris Todd said in a statement. “It’s just the right level of job creation: strong enough to inspire confidence from job-seekers, but also stable enough for the overall economy.”
Released Dec. 8, 2023
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October 2023
3.9% unemployment rate150,000 jobs added
Total nonfarm payroll rose by 150,000 in October and the unemployment rate inched up to 3.9%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“The days of explosive growth are gone, as the labor market shifts into healthier and more sustainable territory,” Noah Yosif, lead labor economist at UKG, said in a statement. “All indicators point to a continued lull in the immediate future. It’s a slowdown, not a collapse.”
However, the continued uptick in unemployment signals it may indeed be a trend rather than a one-off, economists said. Notably, the rise in unemployment is concentrated among workers who recently lost their jobs; those workers are also not finding new jobs, Nick Bunker, head of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement.
“Perhaps this rise is just a sign that the extraordinarily tight labor market of recent years is loosening. But continued upward momentum would be troubling, and hopefully this recent rise levels off as the labor market recovery continues,” he said.
Released Nov. 3, 2023
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September 2023
3.8% unemployment rate336,000 jobs gained
Total nonfarm payroll rose 336,000 in September while the unemployment rate remained at 3.8% — a jump that surprised observers after months of slowdown.
However, wage growth remained in a slowdown, which may alleviate concerns about the Federal Reserve continuing to up interest rates, Nick Bunker, head of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, said.
“It is hard to find any bad news in this report, despite what some observers are suggesting,” Julia Pollak, chief economist of ZipRecruiter, said in a statement.
Almost all industries are now at pre-pandemic employment levels, save leisure and hospitality, and “interest rate-sensitive industries” like manufacturing and construction also continue to see gains.
Released Oct. 6, 2023
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August 2023
3.8% unemployment rate187,000 jobs added
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose 187,000 in August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, though the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, the highest it has been in over a year — reflecting a “noisy” report amid labor strikes, economists said.
While the big picture currently looks largely positive, according to Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, some indicators may be signaling potential pitfalls for the economy in coming months.
“Beneath the surface there were large downward revisions to June and July’s already low jobs gains suggesting that the labor market is on shakier foundations than the previously assumed glide path,” Aaron Terrazas, chief economist for Glassdoor, wrote in a post.
But wages have continued to slow down, said Indeed’s Head Economist Nick Bunker, which may assuage fears of a wage-price spiral.
“A slowdown is welcome,” Bunker said in a statement. “It’s the only way to go the distance.”
Released Sept. 1, 2023