Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February, outpacing expectations once again. The unemployment rate inched up to 3.6%.

“The report suggests U.S. workers are enjoying the best of both worlds — robust job growth paired with easing inflationary pressures,” Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter, said in a statement. “And employers have much to celebrate too, with participation picking up.”

Labor force participation indeed rose, but the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers ticked down to 1.8, signaling a labor market that is still strong but slackening, Pollak said.

Released March 10, 2023

Total nonfarm payroll rose by 517,000 jobs in January, blowing economist predictions out of the water, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 3.4%.

Wage growth slowed, reflecting ongoing efforts by the Federal Reserve to control inflation. January’s report could signal that the feared recession may not hit as hard as expected — if at all, Nick Bunker, head of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement.

While tech companies have made headlines from recent layoffs, those layoffs are being absorbed quickly, Patrick McAdams, CEO of Andiamo, a tech recruiting firm, said in a statement. “While big tech layoffs are making big headlines, our data shows that they aren't yet having a big effect on the overall job market. [Forty-five percent] of laid off tech workers are landing new jobs in under 30 days and 81% are landing new jobs in 90 days.”

Workforce participation remains a concern, however, various experts told HR Dive. “Unfortunately, even with 11 million job openings, too many workers are on the sidelines and not taking advantage of current labor market demand,” American Staffing Association president and CEO Richard Wahlquist said in a statement.

Released Feb. 3, 2023

December’s job report may hint toward a “soft landing” for the economy in 2023 after recession fears, Indeed’s economic research director Nick Bunker said. Total nonfarm payroll rose by 223,000 jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.5%.

Notably, wage growth slowed in the back half of the year — an indicator the Federal Reserve is seeking to ensure reduced inflation. “Slowing but still robust wage gains indicate that the labor market is cooling in a sustainable manner,” Bunker said.

However, two indicators in the report could point to further slackening labor conditions, ZipRecruiter Chief Economist Julia Pollak said in a statement. Temporary help employment fell and average weekly working hours also decreased slightly.

“That could suggest that demand for labor is cooling, and that job growth will be slower in the coming months,” Pollak said. “Temp help employment and working hours are typically leading indicators, whereas other labor market measures are lagging indicators.”

Released Jan. 6, 2023

Despite recession fears driving considerable tech and media layoffs and prompting hiring freezes from similar companies, the job market remains strong, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows. Non-farm employment increased by 263,000 in November 2022; unemployment remained at 3.7%.

Specifically, leisure and hospitality, healthcare and government saw “notable” job gains. Meanwhile, retail, transportation and warehousing employment declined. Overall, experts noted decreased participation in the workforce, while job openings remain high at more than 10 million open roles. American Staffing Association CEO and President Richard Wahlquist said in a statement that this report takeaway reflects what recruiters have seen firsthand regarding employer labor shortage woes.

“Although large firm layoffs make headlines, employers across many sectors are still struggling to fill open positions and are really focusing on employee engagement and retention — holding on to the workers they have,” Wahlquist said.

Nicola Hancock, a managing director at talent firm AMS, also expressed her belief that employers are struggling to find skilled talent. “Organizations across all industries have voiced they will continue to invest in tech; they can’t afford not to. Companies need digital talent to stay competitive,” Hancock said in a press release. “This means right now they are holding on to their tech workers, hiring workers who may have been laid off, and reskilling current employees in other areas of the business.”

Released Dec. 2, 2022

Total nonfarm payroll rose by 261,000 in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported — though the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%.

While the report doesn’t necessarily indicate a slowing economy, it may show some cracks, Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement.

“The household survey was the more concerning of the two data sources this month. Clearly the rise in the unemployment rate was concerning, but the stark dropoff in the prime-age employment-to-population ratio should raise our concern level,” he said.

The state of the economy — and continued recession fears — may be putting major pressure on talent leaders to make a decision one way or the other regarding growth moving into 2023. “This dichotomy is putting employers and recruiters in a tough position,” Robert Boersma, VP Operations, North America for Talent.com, said in a statement. “Do they continue hiring to make up for the labor shortages of the past couple of years or put it off due to fears of a looming recession in the first half of next year?” But as interest rates rise, job availability will also likely lessen, Boersma said.

Released Nov. 4, 2022

Total nonfarm payroll rose by 263,000 in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.5% — signaling a jobs market that is slowing somewhat but still largely stable, economists told HR Dive.

While there are signs that it is getting harder for unemployed workers to find a job, “the widely-feared spike in layoffs has yet to arrive,” Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement; “There might be some turbulence ahead, but the labor market continues to cruise.”

Industries across the board largely gained jobs, but the economy is starting to “become a tale of two job markets,” Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, said in a statement. Some industries, such as healthcare, food services and recreation, continue to see massive job gains, while others affected by high interest rates and a strong dollar, like finance, construction and advertising, saw cuts, she said.

Released Oct. 7, 2022

Total nonfarm payroll rose 315,000 in August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%; however, “it was due to more people joining the labor force and looking for work,” AnnElizabeth Konkel, senior economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement.

“Today’s report answers the persistent recession question, at least for today: we are not in a recession,” Konkel continued. “The US labor market remains strong with employers adding jobs and labor supply coming back online.”

Companies may be “nervous” to execute large layoffs akin to 2008, Nicola Hancock, managing director – Americas region, at AMS, said in a statement. As the market stands, employers may not be willing to handle the risk inherent to cutting large swaths of their workforce. “That blunt response has been painful to recover from and we’re now seeing much longer term strategies in companies’ workforce planning to avoid the skill shortage and subsequent high cost implications as they rebuild their employee base,” Hancock said.

Released Sept. 2, 2022